The Fed's rate at zero? It's no longer a far-fetched idea

11:45 AM, October 30, 2008

Just a day after the Federal Reserve dropped its key short-term interest rate to 1% -- matching the generational low reached in 2003-04 -- the betting is intensifying on another cut.

Trading in futures contracts on the federal funds rate, the Fed’s benchmark, implies a 51.4% probability that the central bank will slash the rate to 0.50% on or before its next meeting on Dec. 16, according to Bloomberg News data.

On Wednesday, the probability of a cut to 0.50% was 32%.

At a minimum, the futures market expects the Fed to take its rate down to 0.75% on Dec. 16.

Rate expectations may be cueing off the government’s report today that the economy shrank at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the third quarter. Although analysts figured the economy had contracted in the period, the details were ugly -- particularly the 3.1% decline in real consumer spending, the biggest drop since the vicious recession that began in 1980.

There are psychological reasons why the Fed would prefer not to cut its rate below 1%. The closer the Fed gets to zero, the more likely that investors will worry the U.S. economy is facing a long period of misery on par with what Japan faced after its real estate markets crashed in the early 1990s.

The Bank of Japan had to maintain its benchmark interest rate at or near zero for most of the 1999-2006 period, before policymakers finally felt comfortable that the economy was in a sustainable recovery.

The wording of the Fed’s statement on Wednesday suggested that "they may [cut] again if necessary, but are probably hoping that they will not have to take the zero-option on rates," said Christopher Rupkey, economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York.

Others see more cuts as inevitable. "I think the Fed is going lower," said Tom Higgins, chief economist at investment firm Payden & Rygel in L.A. "Zero is the floor."

Given the severity of the credit crunch and what that has wrought in the economy, he said, the Fed’s attitude can only be, "Why not throw everything at it?"

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Marty's

Present monetary policy, from here down, is virtually maxed out and meaningless. Lenders are not going to loan to borrowers who are at their limit and consumers, losing equity by the day in their prime asset, their houses, are gun shy when it comes to borrowing.

Like it or not, the days of Milton Freidman and Greenspan are over...the next administration will have 27 yo PhDs poring over tomes authored by Keynes and Galbraith to get us out of this morass with the least amount of pain. I have often been pilloried for maintaining that 'free markets' don't exist, and are a myth perpetuated by those who profit, with impunity, until the piper has to be paid. Unfortunately, all of us have to pay the piper who only played a tune for a few.

The fallacy of 'supply side' economics and tax incentives for the wealthy that capital formation can be utilized for "job creation", is nothing but a cruel ruse. How ironical that the guy who, correctly, proposed progressive taxation is none other than Dr. Strangelove's (McCain) hero, Teddy Roosevelt. That I can enjoy an above average income sitting on my butt, while millions of Americans physically sweat in a futile attempt to maintain a standard of living that can't match that of a dozen countries, and because of depreciation I pay hardly no taxes, is not right. Middle class consumers, the very core of our entire economic life, from a strictly economic sense that would benefit all of us, should be the target of tax relief...not the very wealthy who have great portions of their wealth invested in foreign countries. Or simply stashed offshore so they might enhance their tax shelters.

We need a complete overhaul of our financial system, starting with refunds of obscene management compensation in companies that effectively caused 4M home foreclosures. Lenders receiving govt money should be compelled to loan those amounts above reserves. The ethanol program should be canceled immediately and millions of ag acreage returned to edible foodstuffs. We can't control or modify oil prices, an international commodity, but we could alleviate domestic food costs. Home owners facing foreclosure should be allowed to stay in their homes...paying an amount into an escrow account until a program can be devised to mitigate the problem nationally. Any company 'too big to fail' should be reorganized before it is simply bailed out. Public works and infrastructure projects should be instituted asap. Confidence and consumerism must be restored...else nothing will work.

Posted | October 31, 2008 at 08:49 PM

A winning hedge fund manager's bitter farewell letter

4:01 PM, October 17, 2008

The most entertaining reading on the Web today may be the farewell letter from former Santa Monica hedge fund manager Andrew Lahde, who famously scored huge gains last year by correctly betting on the meltdown in subprime mortgage-backed securities.

The letter to clients begins with a vicious attack on the hedge fund industry itself and the U.S. "aristocracy," and ends with a plea for using hemp as an "alternative food and energy source."

Lahde, 37, nailed the subprime collapse, and reaped a reported 866% one-year return on his call.

But after that brilliant move, he shunned publicity. Last month, he said he was returning clients’ money and leaving the fund business because he considered the risks in the financial system to be extreme.

In his farewell letter, obtained by Portfolio.com, Lahde writes:

"Some people, who think they have arrived at a reasonable estimate of my net worth, might be surprised that I would call it quits with such a small war chest. That is fine; I am content with my rewards. Moreover, I will let others try to amass nine, ten or eleven figure net worths. Meanwhile, their lives suck. Appointments back to back, booked solid for the next three months, they look forward to their two week vacation in January during which they will likely be glued to their BlackBerries or other such devices. What is the point? They will all be forgotten in fifty years anyway. . . . I do not understand the legacy thing. Nearly everyone will be forgotten. Give up on leaving your mark. Throw the BlackBerry away and enjoy life."

Read the entire letter here.

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I understand Lahde perfectly. I did +811% last year, mostly in feeder cattle and oats. And, I have no reason not to think I couldn't do it this year, but I too have basically quit. Not so much for enjoyment though, I'm a cynic.

Posted by: martscan | October 17, 2008 at 05:27 PM

to be cynical means your drawing farther away from god..... when you come back to him you will realize god is everything and without him this country, you, everything is nothing.....

andrew lahde i like this guy, you can tell he has a good heart.

Posted by: stacy | October 17, 2008 at 08:21 PM

Stacy:

You couldn't be farther from the truth of my cynical nature. I am, in fact, in the process of refining a business plan in which I model a business based on the "Church of the Golden Doorknob." Briefly, members join for a modest fee and as they progress in spirituality, by following my fail-safe, step by step, easy to understand CDs (free postage), a penitent member progresses on the path to eternal bliss in the company of the "god" of their choice (we presently offer all the standards of Christianity, Islam, Hindu, etc...more to follow), and each level of spirituality gained affords the member the privilege of accessing the next elevated level by buying the next doorknob, i.e., copper, brass, silver, etc, ultimately attaining the right to purchase the "golden doorknob" for $100,000...while they last. As the founder of this religion, I do enjoy the perk of sitting at the right hand of god...for free. How much closer can I get?

Posted by: martscan | October 18, 2008 at 12:53 PM

Fwd Mail: BUSH'S FAREWELL SPEACH

Please, read this whether you are voting for Mcain or Obama. Even if you hated or liked President Bush this article should explain the course this nation is headed for.

PRETTY MUCH SUMS IT UP

BUSH'S RESIGNATION SPEECH
The following 'speech' was written recently by an ordinary Maine-iac [a resident of the People's Republic of Maine ]. While satirical in nature, all satire must have a basis in fact to be effective. This is an excellent piece by a person who does not write for a living.

The speech George W. Bush might give:

Normally, I start these things out by saying 'My Fellow Americans.' Not doing it this time. If the polls are any indication, I don't know who more than half of you are anymore. I do know something terrible has happened, and that you're really not fellow Americans any longer.

I'll cut right to the chase here: I quit. Now before anyone gets all in a lather about me quitting to avoid impeachment, or to avoid prosecution or something, let me assure you: There's been no breaking of laws or impeachable offenses in this office.

The reason I'm quitting is simple. I'm fed up with you people. I'm fed up because you have no understanding of what's really going on in the world. Or of what's going on in this once-great nation of ours. And the majority of you are too damned lazy to do your homework and figure it out.

Let's start local. You've been sold a bill of goods by politicians and the news media.
Meanwhile, all you can do is whine about gas prices, and most of you are too damn stupid to realize that gas prices are high because there's increased demand in other parts of the world, and because a small handful of noisy idiots are more worried about polar bears and beachfront property than your economic security.

We face real threats in the world. Don't give me this 'blood for oil' thing. If I were trading blood for oil I would've already seized Iraq's oil fields and let the rest of the country go to hell. And don't give me this 'Bush Lied...People Died' crap either. If I were the liar you morons take me for, I could've easily had chemical weapons planted in Iraq so they could be 'discovered.' Instead, I owned up to the fact that the intelligence was faulty.

Let me remind you that the rest of the world thought Saddam had the goods, same as me. Let me also remind you that regime change in Iraq was official US policy before I came into office. Some guy named ' Clinton ' established that policy. Bet you didn't know that, did you?

Now some of you morons want to be led by a junior senator with no understanding of foreign policy or economics, and this nitwit says we should attack Pakistan , a nuclear ally. And then he wants to go to Iran and make peace with a terrorist who says he's going to destroy us. While he's doing that, he wants to give Iraq to al Qaeda, Afghanistan to the Taliban, Israel to the Palestinians, and your money to the IRS so the government can give welfare to illegal aliens, who he will make into citizens, so they can vote to re-elect him. He also thinks it's okay for Iran to have nuclear weapons, and we should stop our foreign aid to Israel. Did you sleep through high school?

You idiots need to understand that we face a unique enemy. Back during the cold war, there were two major competing political and economic models squaring off. We won that war, but we did so because fundamentally, the Communists wanted to survive, just as we do. We were simply able to out spend and out-tech them.

That's not the case this time. The soldiers of our new enemy don't care if they survive. In fact, they want to die. That'd be fine, as long as they weren't also committed to taking as many of you with them as they can. But they are. They want to kill you, and the bastards are all over the globe.

You should be grateful that they haven't gotten any more of us here in the United States since September 11. But you're not. That's because you've got no idea how hard a small number of intelligence, military, law enforcement, and homeland security people have worked to make sure of that. When this whole mess started, I warned you that this would be a long and difficult fight. I'm disappointed how many of you people think a long and difficult fight amounts to a single season of 'Survivor.'

Instead, you've grown impatient. You're incapable of seeing things through the long lens of history, the way our enemies do. You think that wars should last a few months, a few years, tops.

Making matters worse, you actively support those who help the enemy.
Every time you buy the New York Times, every time you send a donation to a cut-and-run Democrat's political campaign, well, dang it, you might just as well FedEx a grenade launcher to a Jihadist. It amounts to the same thing.

In this day and age, it's easy enough to find the truth. It's all over the Internet. It just isn't on the pages of the New York Times, USA Today, or on NBC News. But even if it were, I doubt you'd be any smarter. Most of you would rather watch American Idol or Dancing with Stars.

I could say more about your expectations that the government will always be there to bail you out,even if you're too stupid to leave a city that's below sea level and has a hurricane approaching.

I could say more about your insane belief that government, not your own wallet, is where the money comes from. But I've come to the conclusion that were I to do so, it would sail right over your heads.

So I quit. I'm going back to Crawford. I've got an energy-efficient house down there (Al Gore could only dream) and the capability to be fully self-sufficient for years. No one ever heard of Crawford before I got elected, and as soon as I'm done here pretty much no one will ever hear of it again. Maybe I'll be lucky enough to die of old age before the last pillars of America fall.

Oh, and by the way, Cheney's quitting too. That means Pelosi is your new President. You asked for it. Watch what she does carefully, because I still have a glimmer of hope that there are just enough of you remaining who are smart enough to turn this thing around in 2008.

So that's it. God bless what's left of America.

Some of you know what I mean. The rest of you, kiss off.

PS - You might want to start learning Farsi, and buy a Koran.




Marty's Message:

Why aren't any of these bullshit tracts signed? This PR piece of dreck has obviously been planted by a professional firm hired by "oil friends of George" or "good ole Texas boys for George"...God knows the group aligned in "Cowards for George" is simply too big to control and lacks the chumminess of a more collegial group, perhaps "Coke up, Party up, Drink up In George's Beneficience", CUPUDUIGB for short, or some such group of filthy rich pigs that kick in dough for the right to kiss George's dumb ass and keep their space at the (high) hog feeding trough. All this in a vain attempt to bolster George's pathetic presidential legacy...and deflate the cheers of the heirs of James Buchanan.

If the person who wrote, what oat meal brains consider clever, this sophomoric "speech" best suited to a Junior High burlesque, thinks for a living as well as he doesn't write for a living...he lives a life bereft of simple conveniences, and no claims on 'reason' or logical thinking whatsoever. Its a good bet he never met a Jesuit, let alone studied Thomas Aquinas. Well, let's have at this faux joker.

For openers, Bush's pop rating is more like 28%, threatening HST's lowest record, so he doesn't know fully 72% of his fellow Americans...not the 50% cited in the maniac's speech. Incidentally, there is a legal maxim which contends that if any part of a witness'es testimony can be impeached, the entire testimony can be discarded...as this should be. But its too much fun jousting with someone who must have a pointy head shaped by years of wearing a dunce hat in cold Maine.

His "quitting" the presidency shouldn't shock anyone. If the dunce that wrote this only did a simple exercise in past performance handicapping this plug he would have learned of all past endeavors Bush has 'quit' on. In the interest of husbanding space, it is sufficient for the purpose of learning Bush's commitment perfidies to name but one, the Natl Guard. I suppose the maniac could make the case that some yahoo, red neck Southern politician's run for dog catcher was, at the time, more important to the nation's welfare than George's fighting in Viet Nam...but given what we have come to know about George, its probably best he stayed out of the war...we lost it soon enough without him.

Sorry George, UN mandates aside, you did break international laws, not to mention tacit United States honor and heretofore policies. You ARE a war criminal...and if we were to lose this fiasco, you'd be hanged. Rightfully so.

Sorry George, you can quit, after all, that's your family's birthright...but not because American citizens don't know what's going on in the world. YOU, you dumb prick, spent millions of your corporate masters' dough getting elected to the office whose oath binds YOU to the responsibility of knowing what's going on in the world. Most Americans are too busy busting their asses to put food on the table and clothing their kids to spend much time researching the cultural history of the Taliban, and their dependence on the economic ramifications of the poppy crop, vis-a-vis Pakistan's relationship to Afghanistan's agricultural markets and their combined economic influence on the cocaine trade in Western cultures. Come to think of it, you probably don't know either.

Sorry George, you're too shortsighted to realize that people are concerned about beachfront property, polar bears and the lowly titmouse because they know our planet's ecosystem is directly related to human well-being. We also know its a little over your head, not within your ken. Perhaps in your dotage, sitting on your porch in Crawford, someday you'll read a book which begins beyond, "see Spot run."

Your right about the intelligence on Iraq being faulty, AFTER your neocons doctored it for public consumption. The CIA, our premier foreign agency, never stamped their imprimatur on their reports to you...Wolfowitz and Cheney Co. did. As to the rest of the world, oh, right, let's see, Chad, Nigeria, Iceland, Ireland and I believe , was it Costa Rica...all their foreign intelligence agencies that had operatives in Iraq and spy satellites working day and night, they ALL agreed with YOUR assessment, right? And, no, George, you couldn't have planted WMDs in Iraq...it simply wouldn't fly...too many traitors that would have flipped...probably for dough from the Natl. Enquirer...or maybe Entertainment Tonight. Goofball. Yea, you 'owned' up to it months after you were nailed...you lying prick. Oil? IT WAS OIL AND IT IS OIL. PERIOD. And why was the first order, the very first order effected by our Grand Poobah...Bremer, that Iraq oil no longer be traded in petroeuros but in petrodollars? You know, of course, that not 1 in 100,000 Americans understands seignerage, don't you George, you prick. And why was the only building in all of iraq ordered protected be the Oil Ministry? And why are the big 6 oil companies enacting contracts with the iraq govt that gives them the most oppressive oil rights ever gained in the Mid-East, surpassing the Aramco contracts of 65 years ago in Arabia? You also know, don't you George, that an American garrison will be maintained in Iraq as long as the oil holds out, don't you, you prick.

Now for the fucking maniac that wrote this bullshit. Obama is no nitwit...and for someone to say a black, a black, can become a member of the Harvard Law Review..not to mention being elected to the presidency of the Harvard Law Review and a Magna cum Laude to boot...only says one thing for a fact...and that is whoever said this is a certified asshole and bona fide oat meal brain. 2. Obama never said we should attack Pakistan...you fucking propaganding liar. 3. Obama never said he wanted to make peace with Iran, you fucking liar. 4. Obama never said what you claim about Iraq, Afghanistan or Israel, money to the govt for illegals, nuclear weapons and stopping foreign aid to Israel......YOU LYING MOTHERFUCKING PIECE OF SHIT. DO YOU THINK EVERYONE IS LAST YEAR'S XMAS TREE...LIKE YOU? Enough already, if anyone reading this guy's nonsense believes it...well, you're beyond the pale...and come January, 2009 payback begins.

Send me this guy's name, I will personally see to it that MY message about him gets to 40 or 50,000,000 Americans via cyberspace...this authoritarian, fascist propaganda shit has to be stopped, its not funny and these thinly disguised naziis should be fought tooth and nail. I'm doing my bit...what are YOU doing about it?

Why I am voting Democrat

Re: Why I am voting Democrat

I'm voting Democrat because English has no place being the official language in America.

I'm voting Democrat because it's better to turn corn into fuel than it is to eat.

I'm voting Democrat because I'd rather pay $4 for a gallon of gas than allow drilling for oil off the coasts of America.

I'm voting Democrat because I think the government will do a better job of spending my money than I could.

I'm voting Democrat because when we pull out of Afghanistan and Iraq, I know the Islamic terrorists will stop trying to kill us because they'll think we're a good and decent country.

I'm voting Democrat because I believe people who can't tell us if it will rain in two or three days, can now tell us the polar ice caps will disappear in ten years if I don't start riding a bicycle, build a windmill or inflate my tires to proper levels.

I'm voting Democrat because it's all right to kill millions of babies as long as we keep violent, convicted murderers on death row alive.

I'm voting Democrat because I believe businesses in America should not be allowed to make profits. Businesses should just break even and give the rest to the government so politicians and bureaucrats can redistribute the money the way they think it should be redistributed.

I'm voting Democrat because I believe guns, and not the people misusing them, are the cause of crimes and killings.

I'm voting Democrat because when someone with a weapon threatens my family or me, I know the government can respond faster through a call to 911 than I can with a gun in my hand.

I'm voting Democrat because oil companies' 5% profit on a gallon of gas are obscene, but government taxes of 18% on the same gallon of gas are just fine.

I'm voting Democrat because I believe three or four elitist liberals should rewrite the Constitution every few months to suit some fringe element that could never get their agenda past voters.

I'm voting Democrat because illegal aliens are not criminals, are not sucking up resources through government aid, hospital services, education, or social services, but are just people trying to make a better life by coming to America illegally. We can't blame them for that, can we?

I'm voting Democrat because now I can now marry whatever I want, so I've decided to marry my horse.



Marty's :

* Because an official language is contrary to the very essence of this country. The 'great melting pot' did not conduct organized 'English only' campaigns, inasmuch as all my friends growing up spoke foreign languages at home...its all their parents knew...German, Polish, Italian, Greek and some, even Gaelic. English only is nothing but prejudice and bias against Hispanics made official. It is un-American.

*Because, while I am in favor of incentives to spur alternate energy sources, I am opposed to Republican sponsored corporate welfare in the form of farm subsidies (90% of which go to huge, profitable, Republican corporations) for ethanol...which is a bust. $1.00/bushel on corn in various credits is a crime.

*Because all the estimated oil which could be produced from these sources wouldn't lower the cost of a gallon of gasoline by as much as $0.02/gal. The whole oil deal/drilling/refineries is bullshit..fostered by big oil. For christsake, they spend millions, sub rosa, supporting 'greenies' and buying up battery technology...to keep the propaganda going...while they literally rake in tons of money...and I say, good for them. Why would companies that are making the greatest profits in the history of the world want to upset the applecart? Who wants to kill the goose that lays the golden eggs by increasing supply? Oil companies are NOT patriotic organizations, they are profit making enterprises that don't care if they make their profits in dinars, zlotys, yen, dollars, yuans, pounds or wampum.....all of which are converted into eurodollars and warehoused on the Isle of Man or other havens, only to be repatted when they are given a tax waiver by, heretofore Republican, Congresses. If you were the CEO of EXXON and learned your company had discovered the largest oil field ever, would you even announce it, causing oil prices to sink to, say, $10/bbl...or would you simply store it..leave it where it is for future use? If consumption stays static or rises little, lower prices would mean lower revenues, right? Why would any businessman want lower revenues with the same margin that he had on larger revenues? He wouldn't...and he won't. For chrissake, get your head in the game.


*Because no administration in the history of the United States has ever spent MORE money, that we don't have, and run up the largest deficits in history, making us beholding to foreign creditors that now are buying huge chunks of our financial system...once the largest and most powerful in the world. Open your goddamn eyes, we are witnessing the dissasembly of U.S. power...money. How the fuck can any Republican, conservative asshole say, with a straight face say that Dems are spenders and flaming socialists when a REPUBLICAN administration, a REPUBLICAN Treasury, a REPUBLICAN Federal Reserve and a REPUBLICAN Wall Street...engineers the largest single socialistic bailout in history? I termed these anti-capitalistic measures 'Billionaire Socialism' 18 months ago...the taxpayers are "all in" for the risks, the liabilities, but only scraps...which will never be seen...of the upside. 2 years ago, the alpha group of hedge managers were screaming at Dem committees to leave their incomes alone and taxed at cap gains rates because they were considered "carry interest", a 15% rate instead of a top ordinary rate of 35%. FYI, the individuals in the group made from $240,000,000 to $3,000,000,000 EACH, in 2007. Is one man, sitting at a computer manipulating huge amounts of money, basically unregulated, entitled to earn $3 BILLION dollars with a few keystrokes? Consider this, managers get a management fee of about 2% on assets they manage and 20% of profits. They get nothing, of course, on losses but neither do they kick in any of their own dough. Imagine a manager having 20,000 December oil contracts long and 20,000 Jan 2009 contracts short. Same commodity that can only be pennies apart in price. Let's say the Jan contracts have a loss of $100M...and the Dec have a corresponding gain of $100M. What is to prevent the manager from selling the Dec contracts, click, click its done. Nothing. He just made $20M for himself...but the $100M loss, while not taken is still on the books and exposed to higher margins and further losses...so he, click, click, sells 20,000 contracts of February 2009 contracts...a hedged position...neutral...until he plays games with this spread again. The statements to the fund investors shows the profits...but doesn't have to show the losses..as yet untaken. Voila!! But as soon as things go awry...it is the same multi-millionaire Wall Streeters that are running and begging to Washington for a bailout. Fuck Republicans, Gramm-Leach-Bliley and their 18th century laissez-faire, imperialistic economic philosophy. Just today the Fed agreed to a $37B loan to AIG, on top of the $85B they got 2 weeks ago. This is the same AIG that just spent over $400,000 of YOUR dough playing golf, drinking and getting hand jobs at the spa in Dana Point...I have to hand it the Republican corporate types, when they fuck the taxpayers, you amd me, they do it at 5 star resorts, that's classy. When low down, sleazy, black and poor liberals, such as ACORN, fuck the public...they do it in grimy, homeless tent cities.


*Because we should have never criminally invaded Iraq...for the oil and only the oil. Oil is our our life blood...and if it takes whatever means to assure a supply of it for the next 50 years, so be it, but at least don't so egregiously bullshit the American people. We could have assassinated Saddam and bought, paid for, a tractable Iraq regime for a fraction of the price we are still paying were it not for the maniacal neo-coms, including Dr. Strangelove, McCain. We did it with Central America 100 years ago, South America and the Shah of Iran...with 10 times the oil of Iraq, cheap. And our pact with the Arabs was nothing but a business contract even after they nationalized oil. With our power, was is NOT necessary. Further, the corporate/military complex runs this country and if we didn't have an enemy, a threat, requisite to sustain our ability to kill every soul on earth...we'd invent one. Unfortunately, there is only a very small market for used tanks, and none for used missiles and ammo, ergo, we must keep producing more, exponentially, for obvious financial reasons. We are already setting up little nuances of adversarial notices with China...who will someday own us. Getting to the terrorists part of your "vote"...that the United States could not locate and kill bin ladin in 7 years is bullshit...total fucking bullshit. That we could not have zeroed in on him, satellites can read license plates from 100 miles up, stake out a 100 or 1,000 sq mile sector and eradicate everything within it is preposterous. I'll let your wondrous imagination divine why we haven't yet killed bin Ladin.

*Because I'm tired of assholes like you that believe the asshole in the WH that says he talks with God, well, what the fuck, Eve talked to snakes, didn't she? And the thought of the boozing, horseshit pilot, lying, craps shooting gambler, dirty-leg fucking, phony 'hero' that confessed and signed papers admitting he was a war criminal, a treasonous violation of the military code punishable by death, low, dirty, characterless, no integrity, half nuts, Napoleanic crazed McCain and the narcissistic, vicious, horseshit mother, self-serving Boondock Bimbo...disgusts me.

*Because I'd rather see a potential human development arrested when it is but a mass of nebulous cells, than waiting until they develop into loving, happy babies whose brains we splatter like tapioca with our bombs. Or perhaps we wait until they are 18...and we can use them for grist in our imperialistic drives for economic hegemony all over the world. What the fuck, 55,000 in Viet Nam, 5 or 6,000 lives blown apart in the nid-east, families torn asunder...cost measued in mere peanuts relative to the gains and, as Dr. Strangelove would say, "honor."

You really don't want to hear my reasons on the rest of your items, do you?

Election 2008

From Fwd Mail:

Abraham Lincoln said, "You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you can't fool all the people all the time." Unfortunately, the future of this country, as well as the fate of the Western world, depends on how many people can be fooled on election day, just a few weeks from now.
Right now, the polls indicate that a whole lot of the people are being fooled a whole lot of the time.
The current financial bailout crisis has propelled Barack Obama back into a substantial lead over John McCain-- which is astonishing in view of which man and which party has had the most to do with bringing on this crisis.
It raises the question: Do facts matter? Or is Obama's rhetoric and the media's spin enough to make facts irrelevant?

Fact Number One: It was liberal Democrats, led by Senator Christopher Dodd and Congressman Barney Frank, who for years-- including the present year-- denied that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were taking big risks that could lead to a financial crisis. It was Senator Dodd, Congressman Frank and other liberal Democrats who for years refused requests from the Bush administration to set up an agency to regulate Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It was liberal Democrats, again led by Dodd and Frank, who for years pushed for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to go even further in promoting subprime mortgage loans, which are at the heart of today's financial crisis.
Alan Greenspan warned them four years ago. So did the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers to the President. So did Bush's Secretary of the Treasury, five years ago. Yet, today, what are we hearing? That it was the Bush administration "right-wing ideology" of "de-regulation" that set the stage for the financial crisis. Do facts matter? We also hear that it is the free market that is to blame. But the facts show that it was the government that pressured financial institutions in general to lend to subprime borrowers, with such things as the Community Reinvestment Act and, later, threats of legal action by then Attorney General Janet Reno if the feds did not like the statistics on who was getting loans and who wasn't. Is that the free market? Or do facts not matter? Then there is the question of being against the "greed" of CEOs and for "the people." Franklin Raines made $90 million while he was head of Fannie Mae and mismanaging that institution into crisis.
Who in Congress defended Franklin Raines? Liberal Democrats, including Maxine Waters and the Congressional Black Caucus, at least one of whom referred to the "lynching" of Raines, as if it was racist to hold him to the same standard as white CEOs. Even after he was deposed as head of Fannie Mae, Franklin Raines was consulted this year by the Obama campaign for his advice on housing!

The Washington Post criticized the McCain campaign for calling Raines an adviser to Obama, even though that fact was reported in the Washington Post itself on July 16th. The technicality and the spin here is that Raines is not officially listed as an adviser. But someone who advises is an adviser, whether or not his name appears on a letterhead. The tie between Barack Obama and Franklin Raines is not all one-way. Obama has been the second-largest recipient of Fannie Mae's financial contributions, right after Senator Christopher Dodd. But ties between Obama and Raines? Not if you read the mainstream media. Facts don't matter much politically if they are not reported.

The media alone are not alone in keeping the facts from the public. Republicans, for reasons unknown, don't seem to know what it is to counter-attack. They deserve to lose. But the country does not deserve to be put in the hands of a glib and cocky know-it-all, who has accomplished absolutely nothing beyond the advancement of his own career with rhetoric, and who has for years allied himself with a succession of people who have openly expressed their hatred of America.

Marty's:

I'm pleased to rebut this, and I need no canned, politically partisan, scripted distortions, lies and innuendos to do it. This type of political slander is known as "ratfucking" in the patois of the trade and it originated with the Nixon campaign and perfected by Lee Atwater...and, of course, refined by his acolyte, Rove. The basic premise is taken from the modern master of propaganda, Goebbels, which, in essence says that if the facts do not agree with your agenda, change the facts. Certainly, both political parties have used smear tactics, mud slinging, tricks, etc going back 200 years, but it has only been the careful study of the psychological principles of "mass psychology", espoused by Goebbels, with its subtle uses of constructs that aim at character assassination...which has made Rove the supposed "genius" political operative. I'm no match for Herr Rove, but I know something of history. Let's take a closer look at this tract from the standpoint of FACTS.

Lincoln's admonition has become part of conventional wisdom, yes? Yes, and it is the kernel of truth contained in his pithy statement that is evidenced in Palin's 'popularity' falling like a rock...with a greater distance on the downside yet to be reached, but it will. Anyone thinking that this person is remotely capable of being a senior executive officer of the United States is nuts...and a right wing, evangelical member of the Republican base...which has hated McCain for years and might have stayed home...but will now vote for him...but will not change the Republican demographics from those of Bush's voters.

The entire "lie" of the attached tract is that the Democrats caused our current financial crisis. While there is plenty of blame to go round, sins of comission and omission by both parties, it is the Republican philosophy of "free markets" embodied in the laissez-faire economic theory that is at the very roots of the causative factors for this mess. The Glass-Steagle Act, which delineated areas of operation, responsibilities, reserves, etc in the financial sector..primarily banking, and was formulated to prevent the abuses wrought by the pre-Depression excesses, served us well for nigh on 70 years. With the advent of the Reagan years of deregulation, particularly picking up on Carter's modified, and necessary, dereg measures and emboldened by the effective breaking of union power in this country (the start of the decline of the middle class standard of living**) and culminating in the goofy Gingrich "contract with America"...led by a country hick of an econ prof at a jerkwater school, Phil Gramm, Glass-Steagle was repealed by his Gramm-Leach-Blifel Act. Based on classic laissez-faire economic principles once suited to an 18th century imperialistic England and touted as 'free markets' being the end-all of economic progress...and a repudiation of the New Deal, Keynes, Galbraith theories implemented by FDR...who the Phil Gramms of the world hate...this act virtually opened a floodgate to financial supermarkets offering products that not even the creators of which understood...ironically, products sold by the billions as risk modifiers and abaters were, by themselves, contributing to risk...and the classic human trait of greed overcoming fear (risk) ran rampant...witness the estimated $52 TRILLION still extant in credit default swaps and the huge, ongoing, buybacks of auction rate securities.

Getting back to the literal joke of claims purported to be 'facts' in this hack job....it is downright childish in its presentation. "But the facts show that it was the govt that pressured financial institutions in general to lend to subprime borrowers, with such things as the Community Reinvestment Act (it was passed in 1977...and is NOW being blamed?) and, later, threats of legal action by then AG Janet Reno if the feds did not like the statistics on who was getting loans and who wasn't." Seriously, who wrote this? Who WAS the govt? What WAS the CRA? What did the law SAY? That someone would write such vague and inane statements is beyond irrational...it is intentional distortion...the implication that Janet Reno, arbitrarily, would THREATEN anyone is laughable...that "if the fed did not like" is beyond irrational...since when are laws implemented or not enforced on "the fed" not "liking" that stats? I can write 10 pages here on the CRA alone, 10 pages on the "Financial Services Modernization Act" (Gramm) which permitted banks selling everything from stocks, insurance, travel to washing machines...and also did away with restrictions on consolidation...and Gramm also insisted on expanding the number of banks exempted by CRA. But rather than mentioning all the political and legal wranglings involved...suffice to say that since the Republicans had the hat trick of govt...all 3 branches...why didn't they change everything which, whoever wrote this junk, they now criticize as being done by Democrats? The FACT of the matter is that banks made money on the basis of CRA...a Federal Reserve study in 2003 and a similar study conducted by the Competitive Enterprise Institute both found that there was no clear evidence of the CRA increasing lending in low income neighborhoods than in higher income areas. Why does not the author of this junk mention the Depository Institutions Deregulation and Monetary Act which exempted federally chartered savings banks from state usury laws? Why did not the author of this junk mention the study done in 2002...2002, by Engel and McCoy on the predatory lending practices of CRA lending institutions that were leading to foreclosures against low-income people of color and the elderly....before the housing bubble...and bust?

Franklin Raines. Was NEVER an Obama "adviser", and is not now. That some staffers have called him does not make him an adviser. Raines stepped down from a PRIVATE company in 2004...2004! He headed a company that dealt with literally trillions of dollars in mortgages and was subject to REPUBLICAN HEADED REGULATORY AGENCIES, why did they not do their jobs? His misfeasance did not involve mortgages...it involved altering accounting practices that were of differing interpretation which afforded him a bigger bonus than he otherwise would be entitled to...so what? If he was culpable of a felony...I would bet that a REPUBLICAN Attorney General would have prosecuted him...and he should have been sent to jail...but he wasn't, and it wasn't for lack of trying by REPUBLICAN REGULATORS. "ratfuckers" reported his parachute was $220M...when it was $12M and $140K a month...chicken feed for a guy that ran a PRIVATE company of that magnitude. End of story. The whole Raines deal was "ratfucking'...even Herr Rove commented, publicly, on the McCain campaign crossing the line on bald faced lies.

Obama and "second-largest recipient" of Fannie Mae's contributions: I've had the official FEC list for months. What does this NOT tell you? For one thing, Obama received dough from both Frick & Frack..not just Fannie...and it also doesn't mention that he is a presidential candidate...likely to win....and a committee member of the majority party...why the hell wouldn't he receive big contributions from companies that traditionally lobby politicians that hold positions of power that affect the company? Why didn't the author of this junk tell us that Frick and Frack contributed to 353 OTHER members of congress and why didn't the authour of this junk also tell us that right behind Obama in contributions received were REPUBLICAN Senator Bennett from Utah and the REPUBLICAN REPRESENTATIVE from AL, Bachus, who received over $100,000...MORE than ANY other representative? And why hasn't the author of this junk told us of the lobbying done for Frick by the McCain staffers...in one case getting $45,000 a month and another, lasting up til August, of $15,000 a month!! I was taught that sins of omission bore the same gravity as sins of comission...whoever wrote these distortions has bought him/herself a passport to hell...provided, of course, he is a Bible believing, upstanding, God fearing Christian...albeit a ratfucker in his mortal life. Oh, you don't think so? OK, I'll amend my statement, he's just a rat.

This is really a crude piece of contrived bullshit...fit for morons that are swayed by even the smell of shit, let alone reading real shit like this.


ANONYMOUS:

I was a fellow POW at the Hanoi Hilton of John McCain and was held for 6 years, six months longer than the "Crown Prince", as McCain was known since his father was the top dog and Admiral in the Pacific. I, along with most of the POWs, was tortured to an extent of not even being able to remember for how long...after awhile you simply lose all conception of time and the sense of pain. But one thing I'll remember til the day I die is that I, and hundreds of other equally tortured POWs, never confessed to being a war criminal...I was always aware of my oath and the military code to which I swore...I never signed any paper or made any recording which would have violated my oath. John McCain did. I'm no hero...but I ain't no coward either.


Marty's:

If I had the technical know how to send that POW story to, say, 25,000,000 registered Republican voters, how many voters, in Lincoln's words, would it fool into voting for Obama, without even mentioning his name? There is only one FACT in this statement, the rest is total fiction, completely made up, false, contrived bullshit. The fact is that McCain confessed to being a war criminal while he was a prisoner of an enemy of the United States. Who can argue that the VC, hearing an Admiral's son, a warrior of the great enemy, the exalted and most powerful United States, who can argue that the VC, on hearing this confession, was not empowered to kill more U.S. troops than they would otherwise, had they not heard what amounted to a pep talk by the hero McCain? That is a treasonable offense punishable by death. Private Slovak was put to death for the 'crime' of being 'shell shocked.' Of course, Pvt. Slovak's father was not an admiral.